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Analyst Insights Wireless Watch: Orange backs MeeGo to support its three-screen content strategy
Mar 3, 2010 – By Rethink Research

Vodafone is relying on software frameworks that it can define and control, to create its own mobile web platform and fight off the bitpipe role (see separate item). But its 360 strategy remains tightly grounded in its pureplay wireless history, with little outreach to its newer broadband activities. By contrast, Orange sees its power against the device and internet brands lying in its ability to span the whole consumer content experience, delivering consistent interfaces and apps to the ‘three screens’ – the phone, television and PC. This will require a different set of partnerships, and has driven the French carrier to be the first operator to go public with support for the combined Nokia/Intel operating system, MeeGo.  
 
MeeGo was announced at last month’s Mobile World Congress and brings together the platforms, and developer communities, of two fledgling Linux-based operating systems, Nokia Maemo and Intel Moblin. Unlike the other mobile OSs, such as Nokia driven Symbian, MeeGo will extend from the phone to the PC from day one, with real implementations on both sides of the fence – Maemo in Nokia’s N900 superphone, Moblin in various Intel-based netbooks. Android is also positioning for a broad reach, from netbooks down to embedded devices, and has appeared in a wide range of products, but so far, the Google-led R&D efforts and the developer ecosystem, are firmly wedded to the handset.  
 
This could give MeeGo – if it can overcome some of the more obvious traps lurking for it – a headstart on Android and a different positioning, which would take advantage of the huge channel, supply chain and developer reach of its supporters, Intel in the PC world and Nokia in phones.  
 
This is the bet that Orange appears to be taking. It has a history of supporting many operating systems, where it thinks it can steal a march over other carriers. It was the first major cellco to commit to Windows Mobile, which (ironically enough) was one of the only advanced platforms in those days that was targeted at white label operator branded phones. It is a member of the LiMO Foundation and offers handsets running all the main software choices. But MeeGo fits particularly well with its recent strategy of creating a unified content experience for TV, mobile and broadband subscribers, to increase ARPU and loyalty via a quad play that is delivered in software and apps, not just bundles of tariffs.  
 
Orange cross-platform App Shop has been pioneered in France and will support applications for all the smartphones and operating systems in its portfolio, as well as Java phones and, in time, IPTV and PCs. App fees are added to subscribers' phone bills.  
 
MeeGo devices could become key delivery vehicles for the premium end of this store plan. Like other carriers, Orange needs to strike a balance between supporting every OS, handset and app to gain reach, and differentiating itself with optimized user experiences and exclusive content. The latter elements will be important to enhancing the cellco’s place in the value chain, but cannot realistically be delivered over every mobile platform – instead, key handset and OS partners will be drafted in to help make the carrier offering stand out.  
 
MeeGo is new enough that Orange could gain significant influence over its direction, even though it has had stormy relations with Nokia in recent years, particularly over the Finn’s desire to bundle its own content stores with its high end phones, potentially conflicting with the carrier’s own offerings. But Nokia is a more flexible friend these days, as its co-branded version of the X6 smartphone for Vodafone 360 shows. And much of Orange’s interest will center on Intel, and the partnership for the PC and netbook market. MeeGo is also expected to be a prime mover in the evolution of new device formats, at the intersection of the PC and the phone, by virtue of the contrasting backgrounds of its two owners. It also, of course, has a clear bridge to the large developer and user base of Symbian, via Nokia’s Qt cross-platform toolkit.  
 
But Orange insiders are clear that Intel is the real attraction in the MeeGo tie-up, opening up access to the PC developer community, not always easily available to cellcos. The carrier will work with Intel increase the availability of Orange Signature Services, such as Orange TV and Orange Maps, on MeeGo/Atom products. Yves Maitre, SVP of devices at Orange, commented: “75% of our customer base has yet to embrace the mobile internet. It is our role to make sure our customer’s journey into this richer mobile multimedia environment is simple and easy. Our collaboration with Intel on the MeeGo software platform will not only ensure a broader choice in terms of screens and devices, but that customers continue to benefit from a consistent user experience delivered through Orange Signature services, including a customized homescreen they trust and recognize, the highest quality network and secure and simplified billing.”  
 
Orange’s support will be important in MeeGo’s bid to provide a cross-platform environment for the whole spectrum of consumer electronics, and to take a lead in the nascent world of multiscreen applications. But while carriers, and Intel, provide much of the market reach for the new OS, the greatest burden of proving MeeGo’s multiplatform credentials in technical terms will fall on Nokia.  
 
This is because the Finn contributes the single most crucial piece of software to the undertaking, Qt. Acquired with Trolltech, this was one of Nokia’s most strategically important purchases ever and key to its quest to become a web software giant. It already spans Symbian, Maemo and non-Nokia OSs like Windows, and of course the last of these will be important in crossing the PC-phone divide, given that hybrid systems like Atom will run a mixture of Windows and Linux-based options. But it has much to prove in the wild world beyond Nokia – that it can scale upwards and downwards to support many device categories; and that it brings commercial and usability benefits to developers. In this, it will have some strong rivals, many of them also targeting the Atom platform – cross-platform web-based technologies like Adobe Flash/AIR or the emerging HTML5; well established Java-based tools; or Microsoft’s own armory, such as Silverlight and Foundation Class.  
 
The heavy emphasis on Intel, rather than Nokia, in the Orange statements reflects the carrier’s need to broaden its device range to PC-style gadgets, a move also being made by other large cellcos like AT&T, as they chase quad plays, or add-on data plans attached to second, third or fourth wireless products. But it also highlights the divisions that may damage MeeGo. Although the logic of a Nokia/Intel axis in the world of PC-phone convergence is clear, there are also many potential conflicts to address. Not least, how far MeeGo will limit Nokia’s use of non-Intel silicon in its advanced device categories (its first use of Qualcomm’s Snapdragon, an Atom rival, will be in a conventional phone, not a new-style gadget, for instance). And on the flip side, how open MeeGo will be to Nokia competitors. LG has already promised that its upcoming Atom-based handset, the GW990, will run MeeGo and this will be an important test device both for the OS and for Intel’s processor, in its first outing in a true phone. But if LG deploys MeeGo effectively, Nokia could find the software platform that it regarded as a spearhead for its own high end renaissance becoming a competitive tool for one of its most dangerous rivals.  
 
Commercial Chinese walls will have to exist within MeeGo around such relationships, and it remains to be seen how far these will stretch out to hinder or divide the combined developer ecosystem. Both companies will need to accept that MeeGo will gain influence by addressing their rivals as well as their own product plans, but this is never an easy balance to strike, as has been seen in the history of Symbian – another multivendor OS dominated by Nokia. And they cannot afford to lose too much control, a dilemma shared with Google in Android – although MeeGo, like Moblin, is hosted by the Linux Foundation, its governance is very much that of a benevolent dictatorship.  
 
 
Intel’s embedded Atom efforts stalling?  
 
Of course, on the Intel side, part of the success of MeeGo will depend on Atom making a parallel shift to become a truly cross-device processor, finding a place in phones and embedded devices as well as netbooks and notebooks. Although Intel has made significant progress in cutting power consumption, and got Atom into its first smartphone, its program to create systems-on-chip for even smaller, cheaper devices, in partnership with Taiwanese foundry TSMC, appears to have hit a roadblock.  
 
Intel moved away from its policy of making its own chips last year when it engaged TSMC as a partner for the ultra-low power Atom range destined for consumer and machine-to-machin devices with embedded wireless. But the giant admitted last week that it had no immediate plans to bring to market any Atom chips manufactured by TSMC, following reports in the New York Times that the alliance was facing lack of demand for its SoCs. Robert Crooke, general manager of Intel's Atom and SoC development group, said the firms would continue to work together but spokesperson Bill Kircos was quoted by EETimes, saying: "It's been difficult to find the sweet spot of product, engineering, IP and customer demand to go into production."  
 
Intel said last March that it would port unspecified Atom x86 processor cores to TSMC’s platform, including processes, IP, libraries and design flows – the first deal under which the giant would transfer a processor technology to a foundry. This indicated the importance of harnessing TSMC’s expertise to help step up its assault on the strongholds of the ARM processor design, in mobile and embedded devices, and so reduce reliance on the PC market for growth.  
 
The x86 architecture has made some inroads into embedded systems, notably by ousting PowerPC form the medical imaging space, and the embedded group now makes $2bn a year in revenue. But this will be a slow process, with major contracts taking a long time to finalize, and having to overcome the natural suspicion of partners looking to work with a dominant player like Intel. In addition, Intel has little experience of marketing cores and IP, as opposed to whole processors, and its technology, despite the vast x86 ecosystem, would still present some risk to new partners.  
 
Other reasons why the TSMC SoC initiative may prove a slow burner include reportedly high royalty charges and/or IPR restrictions compared to ARM. The IPR issue is the most thorny one for Intel once it opens up to a broader customer base and a foundry. It has invested billions in developing its unique technologies and defending its patents, and so many observers speculate that, in order to protect itself from x86 cloning, it is putting heavy restrictions into its licenses, as well as limiting the amount of information it discloses about its core. This would contrast with the detailed documentation available to users of the ARM or Mips cores. The fear of making its best IP openly visible could even mean TSMC is using a different, and perhaps inferior, implementation.

Courtesy Rethink Research.



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